選出正確的一個 Choose the right one

• 特朗普称赞与朝鲜领导人金正恩“关系非常好” Trump touts ‘very good relationship’ with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (PBS NewsHour, 10/22/2022)
• 特朗普称他与中国习近平“建立了友谊” Trump says he's 'developed a friendship' with China's Xi (The Straits Times, 04/06/2017)
• 特朗普称“终身总统”听起来很棒 Trump says 'president for life' sounds great (CNN, 03/03/2018)
• 从商人到美国总统，唐纳德·特朗普多次赞扬俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，有时还附和他的观点。From businessman to US President, Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and, at times, echoed his point of view. (CNN, 2016)
• Hungary's Viktor Orbán met Donald Trump just weeks after the Hungarian PM met Russia's Vladimir Putin (BBC, 07/11/2024)

• 匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托会见了唐纳德·特朗普，几周前匈牙利总理会见了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京。Hungary blocks €50bn of EU funding for Ukraine, BBC, 12/15/2023
• 匈牙利欧尔班获得欧盟俄罗斯石油禁运豁免 Hungary’s Orban wins exemption in EU Russian oil embargo, AP, 05/31/2022

• 特朗普计划“24小时”结束俄罗斯战争——乌克兰最大需求被拆除？Trump's Plan To End Russia War In '24 Hours' - Ukraine's Biggest Demand To Be Demolished? (Hindustan Times, 09/13/2014)
• 听起来像是投降”：众议员斯潘伯格对特朗普结束乌克兰战争的计划做出反应‘Sounds like surrender’: Rep. Spanberger reacts to Trump’s plans to end war in Ukraine (MSNBC 09/13/2024)

• 总统辩论：特朗普、哈里斯谈俄罗斯-乌克兰战争 Presidential Debate: Trump, Harris on the Russia-Ukraine war (9News, 09/10/2024)

投票前需要做更多研究。

Do more research before vote.

Decide who to vote for

註冊投票或更新您的註冊

Register to vote or update your registration

https://www.vote.gov/

俄乌冲突对俄罗斯石油动态的影响和印度的角色

 现在（背景） NOW (BACKGROUND)

泽连斯基称，8月底，俄罗斯向乌克兰发射了160枚导弹、780枚滑翔炸弹和400架无人机。俄罗斯对乌克兰东北部哈尔科夫居民区的滑翔炸弹袭击造成至少6人死亡，近100人受伤。作为回应，乌克兰对莫斯科的一家大型炼油厂和俄罗斯各地的其他目标进行了空袭，这是俄罗斯入侵以来最大的一次空袭。乌克兰认为，对炼油厂和其他石油基础设施的袭击可能会扰乱前线的燃料供应，并损害莫斯科最重要的出口产业。 (The Wall Street Journal, 09/01/2024)

现在情况？ NOW WHAT?

俄罗斯经济部将2024年石油和天然气出口销售额预测从之前的估计上调了174亿美元，至2397亿美元。预计2024年俄罗斯原油出口量将从2023年的2.383亿吨增至2.399亿公吨。俄罗斯石油出口平均价格的预测也从2023年的64.5美元上调至70美元/桶。这超过了西方国家设定的60美元/桶的价格上限。 (invezz, 09/06/2024)

在截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的第一财季，印度对俄罗斯石油的进口量同比增长了 1.2%。由于乌克兰无人机袭击导致俄罗斯炼油厂停产，俄罗斯出口了更多原油。因此，印度炼油商一直在大量购买俄罗斯石油，这些石油在以折扣价出售后成为了印度的额外出口。 (Reuters, 07/24/2024) 印度炼油商通过折扣购买俄罗斯石油可能节省至少 105 亿美元。 (Indian Express, 07/11/2024)

印度是俄罗斯石油的最大买家，俄罗斯石油为印度经济提供了助力。尽管西方因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而对其实施制裁，但印度仍希望与俄罗斯保持良好关系。 (DW 07/08/2024)

所以呢？ SO WHAT?

乌克兰是否会调整攻击目标或制定新的战略？

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict’s Impact on Russian Oil Dynamics - The India's Role in The Conflict

NOW (BACKGROUND)

Zelensky said that in late August, Russia had fired 160 missiles, 780 glide bombs and 400 explosive drones against Ukraine. And a Russian glide-bomb strike on a residential area of Kharkiv in Ukraine’s northeast killed at least six and left nearly 100 injured. In response, Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in Moscow and other targets across Russia in one of its largest aerial barrages since the start of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine believes that the wave of attacks on refineries and other petroleum infrastructure may disrupt fuel supplies to the front line and damage Moscow’s most important export industry. (The Wall Street Journal, 09/01/2024)

NOW WHAT?

Russia’s economy ministry has revised up its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion. Russian crude oil exports are expected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons in 2024, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023. The estimate for the average price of Russian oil sold for export is also raised to $70 per barrel, up from $64.5 in 2023. This exceeds the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Western countries. (invezz, 09/06/2024)

During the first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2024, India's import of Russia oil rose by an annual 1.2%. Russia exported more crude oil because of outages at its refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks. Thus, Indian refiners have been gorging on Russian oil, which emerged as an additional outlet after being sold at a discount. (Reuters, 07/24/2024) Indian refiners likely saved at least $10.5 billion by buying discounted Russian oil. (Indian Express, 07/11/2024)

India is the largest buyer of Russian oil which has provided a boost for its economy. India wants to maintain its good relations with Russia — despite the Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (DW 07/08/2024)

SO WHAT?

Will Ukraine adjust its targets for attack or come up a new strategy?