The Russia-Ukraine Conflict’s Impact on Russian Oil Dynamics - The India's Role in The Conflict

NOW (BACKGROUND)

Zelensky said that in late August, Russia had fired 160 missiles, 780 glide bombs and 400 explosive drones against Ukraine. And a Russian glide-bomb strike on a residential area of Kharkiv in Ukraine’s northeast killed at least six and left nearly 100 injured. In response, Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in Moscow and other targets across Russia in one of its largest aerial barrages since the start of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine believes that the wave of attacks on refineries and other petroleum infrastructure may disrupt fuel supplies to the front line and damage Moscow’s most important export industry. (The Wall Street Journal, 09/01/2024)

NOW WHAT?

Russia’s economy ministry has revised up its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion. Russian crude oil exports are expected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons in 2024, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023. The estimate for the average price of Russian oil sold for export is also raised to $70 per barrel, up from $64.5 in 2023. This exceeds the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Western countries. (invezz, 09/06/2024)

During the first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2024, India's import of Russia oil rose by an annual 1.2%. Russia exported more crude oil because of outages at its refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks. Thus, Indian refiners have been gorging on Russian oil, which emerged as an additional outlet after being sold at a discount. (Reuters, 07/24/2024) Indian refiners likely saved at least $10.5 billion by buying discounted Russian oil. (Indian Express, 07/11/2024)

India is the largest buyer of Russian oil which has provided a boost for its economy. India wants to maintain its good relations with Russia — despite the Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (DW 07/08/2024)

SO WHAT?

Will Ukraine adjust its targets for attack or come up a new strategy?