2025年7月11日星期五

[History] 獨裁者的心態 The mentality of a dictator

獨裁者的心態,尤其是有入侵或佔領歷史的獨裁者,通常反映出一種特定的威權野心、戰略計算和意識形態辯護的混合。以下是這些領導者常見的心理和政治模式:核心心理特徵權力鞏固:深切渴望擴大控制至國外,通常與個人光榮或政權保護有關。零和思維:將國際關係視為戰場,一個國家的獲利必然是另一個國家的損失。歷史修正主義:重新詮釋國家歷史以為擴張辯護—有時引用失落的帝國、民族聯繫或領土“命運”。偏執與控制:感知到內部和外部隨處可見的威脅,並以安全名義為預防性侵略辯護。政治和戰略動機轉移國內問題的注意:軍事侵略可以用來提高民族主義熱情並轉移對經濟不穩定或政治異議的注意。資源獲取:佔領可能是出於對戰略領土、自然資源或軍事優勢的需求。威懾訊息:展示武力以期阻止鄰國的抵抗或內部反對。歷史回聲一些獨裁者將入侵描繪為文明任務的一部分、防衛的必要性,或與"失去的兄弟"的重聚。這些合理化大量依賴民族主義神話或民族中心主義意識形態。

有一些著名的獨裁者例子,他們的政權以侵略或佔領其他國家為特徵,這些行為往往透過意識形態、偏執或戰略野心來辯解。你可以通過 Google 搜索或 Copilot 等找到這些例子。

The mentality of a dictator with a history of invasion or occupation often reflects a particular blend of authoritarian ambition, strategic calculation, and ideological justification. Here are a few psychological and political patterns commonly observed in such leaders:

Core Mental Traits
Power Consolidation: A deep desire to expand control beyond domestic borders, often linked to personal glorification or regime preservation.

Zero-Sum Thinking: Viewing international relations as a battlefield where one state's gain must be another's loss.

Historical Revisionism: Reinterpreting national history to justify expansion—sometimes invoking lost empires, ethnic ties, or territorial “destiny.”

Paranoia and Control: Perceiving threats everywhere, internally and externally, which justifies preemptive aggression in the name of security.

Political & Strategic Motives
Diversion from Domestic Issues: Military aggression can be used to rally nationalistic fervor and distract from economic instability or political dissent.

Resource Acquisition: Occupation may be motivated by access to strategic territories, natural resources, or military advantages.

Message of Deterrence: A display of force aimed at discouraging resistance from neighboring countries or internal opposition.

Historical Echoes
Some dictators frame invasions as part of a civilizing mission, a defensive necessity, or a reunion with "lost brethren." These rationalizations draw heavily from nationalist mythology or ethnocentric ideologies.

There are some notable examples of dictators whose regimes were marked by invasion or occupation of other countries, often justified through ideology, paranoia, or strategic ambition. You may find them via Google search or Copilot etc.

Dictators Unmasked: Decoding the Dark Psychology Behind Absolute Power



2025年7月10日星期四

[News] Elbridge Colby暫停对烏援助和歷史教訓 - Elbridge Colby About Ukraine Vs History Lesson

川普總統逆轉咗國防部副部長Elbridge Colby下令暫時停止向烏克蘭運送武器 ,佢暫停援助嘅藉口係一個機密審查,顯示美國武器庫存低到危險。Brandon J. Weichert 嘅文章《Elbridge Colby對烏克蘭嘅問題係啱嘅》聲稱,儘管特朗普過去呼籲「停止殺人」同推動和平談判,但佢仍然恢復武器運送,同早前嘅外交意圖相矛盾。文章指出,特朗普嘅行動可能會延長戰爭,同埋損害美國自己嘅準備狀態。

不過,歷史提供咗一個令人清醒嘅教訓:安撫好少會令侵略者滿意 —— 佢通常會令佢哋更加大膽。納粹德國(1930年代):英國同法國允許希特拉將萊茵地區重新軍事化,吞併奧地利( Anschluss ),同埋奪取捷克斯洛伐克嘅蘇台德地區 —— 所有呢啲都係為咗避免戰爭。相反,呢啲讓步助長咗佢嘅野心,最終導致入侵波蘭同第二次世界大戰爆發。 日本帝國(1930年代):當日本入侵滿洲嗰陣,國際聯盟未能採取果斷行動,呢種缺乏抵抗力鼓勵咗進一步向中國同東南亞擴張,最終喺珍珠港事件之後將美國拖入戰爭。俄羅斯同克里米亞(2014):克里米亞嘅吞併遇到咗有限嘅國際阻力。邱吉爾有句名言:「安撫者係餵crocodile一隻,希望佢可以最後食佢。」

President Donald Trump reversed a temporary halt in arms shipments to Ukraine that was ordered by Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby. His excuse for pausing aid was a classified review showing U.S. weapon stockpiles were dangerously low.

The article “Elbridge Colby Is Right About Ukraine” by Brandon J. Weichert claims Despite Trump's past calls to “stop the killing” and push for peace talks, he resumed arms shipments, contradicting earlier diplomatic intentions.The article suggests Trump's actions may prolong the war and undermine America's own readiness.

However, History offers a sobering lesson: appeasement rarely satisfies an aggressor—it often emboldens them. 

Key Historical Examples
Nazi Germany (1930s): Britain and France allowed Hitler to remilitarize the Rhineland, annex Austria (Anschluss), and seize the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia—all in hopes of avoiding war. Instead, these concessions fueled his ambition, culminating in the invasion of Poland and the outbreak of World War II2.

Imperial Japan (1930s): The League of Nations failed to act decisively when Japan invaded Manchuria. This lack of resistance encouraged further expansion into China and Southeast Asia, eventually dragging the U.S. into war after Pearl Harbor.

Russia and Crimea (2014): The annexation of Crimea met with limited international pushback. Some analysts argue this emboldened further aggression, including the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Consequences of Appeasement
Empowers aggressors: Concessions are often seen as weakness, encouraging further demands.

Undermines international law: Treaties and norms lose credibility when violations go unpunished.

Erodes trust: Allies may lose faith in collective security arrangements, leading to fractured coalitions.

Delays necessary action: Waiting too long can make eventual conflict more costly and complex.

Strategic Takeaway
Appeasement might buy time—but it rarely buys peace. As Churchill famously said, “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”

[NEWS] 特朗普的全球推動 Trump's Global Push: Trade Shifts, Peace Deals, and Strategic Power Plays 1

特朗普總統與來自資源豐富國家的非洲領導人會晤,推動從外援轉向貿易,並促進美國商業利益,特別是在科技和清潔能源中使用的關鍵礦產。特朗普鼓勵國防支出,希望能促進軍火銷售,但對於減少援助、不一致的政策,以及像羅比托鐵路走廊這樣的基礎設施計劃的緊張情況依然存在擔憂。

(Bloomberg, 07/10/2025) President Trump met with African leaders from mineral-rich nations to push a shift from foreign aid to trade and promote U.S. business interests, especially in critical minerals used in tech and clean energy. While the U.S. aims to reduce its reliance on China, African leaders emphasized the need for local industry development and welcomed other international partnerships. Trump encouraged defense spending with hopes of arms sales, but concerns linger over reduced aid, inconsistent policies, and strained infrastructure plans like the Lobito rail corridor. The summit revealed both potential and tension in U.S.-Africa relations. (1)

特朗普總統接待了讚揚他在促成盧旺達和剛果民主共和國之間和平協議中的角色的非洲領袖。來自兩國的代表在特朗普面前簽署了該協議,這標誌著在多年因邊界緊張和叛軍問題而爆發的衝突後,難得的合作時刻。

(AP, 07/10/2025) During a busy week in Washington, President Trump hosted African leaders who praised his role in brokering a peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo—a region long plagued by deadly conflict. Representatives from both countries signed the agreement in front of Trump, marking a rare moment of cooperation after years of fighting over border tensions and rebel groups. The deal added to Trump's list of global peace efforts, prompting calls for his nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu even formally endorsed him for it, citing peace achievements with Gaza, Iran, and other regions. Despite ongoing wars elsewhere, supporters argue Trump’s involvement in Africa’s fragile progress deserves international recognition. (2) 

 特朗普透過下令襲擊伊朗的核設施震驚了世界,似乎引發了新的中東戰爭,但就在幾天後,他宣布了一項伊朗和以色列之間的停火協議。特朗普所稱的“十二天戰爭”提供了一個充滿希望的結局。

(Time, 06/224/2025) Donald Trump surprised the world by ordering strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, seeming to spark a new Middle East war, but just days later he announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel. Despite ongoing missile attacks and confusion over the terms, both countries eventually signaled support—thanks in part to Qatar's mediation and Trump’s direct talks with Israeli leaders. Iran initially denied any agreement, insisting Israel must stop its aggression first, while Trump promoted the ceasefire as a breakthrough for peace. Though violence continued briefly, the deal was later acknowledged, offering a hopeful end to what Trump called “The 12 Day War.” (3)

美國與葉門的胡塞叛軍達成了一項停火協議,由阿曼促成,以停止對紅海美國艦艇的攻擊,這幫助特朗普政府在前往海灣國家的重要行程之前聲稱在安全航道上取得了勝利。

(The Hill, 05/08/2025) The U.S. and Yemen’s Houthi rebels agreed to a ceasefire, brokered by Oman, to stop attacks on American ships in the Red Sea—helping the Trump administration claim a win for safe shipping lanes ahead of a key trip to Gulf countries. The U.S. military had launched over 1,000 strikes since March, weakening Houthi forces, which analysts say pushed the group to agree to peace. Iran, a key backer of the Houthis, may have played a role after pressure from Saudi Arabia. Though the deal is seen as modest, it helps ease tensions in the region and supports U.S. efforts to restart talks with Iran on its nuclear program. (4)

Trump Meets African Leaders at the White House





REFERENCE
1,  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/trump-s-africa-summit-heats-up-rivalry-for-continent-s-resources/ar-AA1IgmaP?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=SMTS&cvid=c9e48523afb44a119a4bf7d7cbfb0288&ei=17
2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-newest-way-to-influence-trump-nominate-him-for-the-nobel-peace-prize/ar-AA1ImVmE?ocid=BingNewsSerp
3. https://time.com/7297049/iran-israel-ceasefire-trump/
4. https://thehill.com/policy/international/5288802-us-houthis-ceasefire-iran/