2022年2月13日星期日

【香港記事】 香港应该应用动态清零于流感吗?

 香港的COVID19的资料如下:




7 天: 平均新COVID19案例是319,那么共 2233
7 天:平均死案例是1, 那么共7
百分比是:0.3%

基于动态清零原则,那些中招者都要住院。


2017年,香港地区有14700多人因流感住院,其中327人死亡。(1)百分比是:2.2%。 如此,单是应付流感,香港每年都需要经常要动态清零law!!


本人见识淺薄,分析一定有问题,请各位指教。

后加: (1)如果只是重症才住院, 那么,百分比是可能提高很多, 就可以解析到->流感不需要动态清零。(2)我用7天的data是因为现在的疫苗百分比比之前高了很多,而omicron的影响和以往的不一样。














2 則留言:

  1. 謝謝你的分享!流感的傳播率和變異是否與 OMINCRON 有分別呢?

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    1. 谢谢您的留言。您的问题很好啊。答复如下:
      流感的傳播率和變異是否與 OMINCRON 有分別呢?
      傳播率的比较:
      Omicron 厉害很多:For the flu, the R0 tends to be between 1 and 2, which means that for every person infected with the flu, they will infect one to two more people. For the original COVID-19 variant, the R0 is higher than the flu, between 2 and 3. Delta is more than twice as contagious as previous variants of COVID-19, with an R0 that is estimated to be between 5-7. Omicron to be about 3 times as infectious as the Delta variant (1),while an article says R0 for omicron is 30s! (2)
      變異的比较:
      一般的SARS的變異率和流感差不多,但COVID-19那个就快很多,因为在短时间内,多了很多的變种。Like influenza viruses, RSV, enteroviruses, and rhinoviruses, which cause the common cold, SARS-CoV-2 carries its genetic information on a strand of RNA. And compared with other RNA viruses, "[the mutation] rate in SARS-CoV-2 is not particularly remarkable. But, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may appear to evolve more mutations due to the fact that it's much more transmissible than other common viruses, resulting in many more cases. (3)

      (1) COVID-19 and Influenza Surveillance - Coronavirus (virginia.gov)
      (2) Beyond Omicron: what’s next for COVID’s viral evolution (nature.com)
      (3) Do other viruses have as many variants as SARS-CoV-2? | Live Science

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