B。為了確認我的觀察結論,我考察了一些新聞和文獻。 (看下一段) 在美國2014-2018的流感死亡比例是0.1-0.17,而今次我用單日2月14日來分析:在2月14日香港新增確案是2071而2死亡,百分比是0.096%。 上一段我已說明如果COVID是Omicron,防護工作,疫苗,非常重要。
C。 According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), preliminary data on the 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States shows an estimated 35,520,883 cases and 34,157 deaths; that would mean a case-fatality rate of 0.09 percent. Case-fatality rates on previous seasons are as follows: 0.136 percent (2017-2018), 0.131 percent (2016-2017), 0.096 percent (2015-2016), and 0.17 percent (2014-2015). (4)
D。 年齡小和60或以上需要非常小心,重要的是打了3疫苗(需要考慮副作用; 每個人的體能反應是不一樣的;和醫生討論)和做好防護工作。
E。 流感的傳播率和變異是否與 OMINCRON 有分別呢?
傳播率的比较:
Omicron 厲害很多:For the flu, the R0 tends to be between 1 and 2, which means that for every person infected with the flu, they will infect one to two more people. For the original COVID-19 variant, the R0 is higher than the flu, between 2 and 3. Delta is more than twice as contagious as previous variants of COVID-19, with an R0 that is estimated to be between 5-7. Omicron to be about 3 times as infectious as the Delta variant (1),while an article says R0 for omicron is 30s! (2)
變異的比较:
一般的SARS的變異率和流感差不多,但COVID-19那個就快很多,因為在短時間內,多了很多的變種。Like influenza viruses, RSV, enteroviruses, and rhinoviruses, which cause the common cold, SARS-CoV-2 carries its genetic information on a strand of RNA. And compared with other RNA viruses, "[the mutation] rate in SARS-CoV-2 is not particularly remarkable. But, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may appear to evolve more mutations due to the fact that it's much more transmissible than other common viruses, resulting in many more cases. (3)
F。 對Omicron需要動態清零嗎?相信大家心中都有答案了。
注意:我是用目前的數據來分析,將來的,或不同的起因的,總結是不一樣的。年齡小和60或以上需要非常小心,重要的是打了3疫苗(需要考慮副作用;和在打之前和醫生討論)和做好防護工作。一些國家降低了限制,然後,死亡率上升。因此,必須保持一定的防護限制,以保持目前的低死亡率。
最後,祝各位身體健康。
Reference
(1) COVID-19 and Influenza Surveillance - Coronavirus (virginia.gov)
(2) Beyond Omicron: what’s next for COVID’s viral evolution (nature.com)
(3) Do other viruses have as many variants as SARS-CoV-2? | Live Science
(4) https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/missouri-records-233-new-covid-19-deaths/
以下是一般COVID-19和Flu的比较: