Zelensky said that in late August, Russia had fired 160 missiles, 780 glide bombs and 400 explosive drones against Ukraine. And a Russian glide-bomb strike on a residential area of Kharkiv in Ukraine’s northeast killed at least six and left nearly 100 injured. In response, Ukraine struck a major oil refinery in Moscow and other targets across Russia in one of its largest aerial barrages since the start of Russia’s invasion. Ukraine believes that the wave of attacks on refineries and other petroleum infrastructure may disrupt fuel supplies to the front line and damage Moscow’s most important export industry. (The Wall Street Journal, 09/01/2024)
NOW WHAT?
Russia’s economy ministry has revised up its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion. Russian crude oil exports are expected to rise to 239.9 million metric tons in 2024, up from 238.3 million tons in 2023. The estimate for the average price of Russian oil sold for export is also raised to $70 per barrel, up from $64.5 in 2023. This exceeds the $60 per barrel price cap imposed by Western countries. (invezz, 09/06/2024)
During the first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2024, India's import of Russia oil rose by an annual 1.2%. Russia exported more crude oil because of outages at its refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks. Thus, Indian refiners have been gorging on Russian oil, which emerged as an additional outlet after being sold at a discount. (Reuters, 07/24/2024) Indian refiners likely saved at least $10.5 billion by buying discounted Russian oil. (Indian Express, 07/11/2024)
India is the largest buyer of Russian oil which has provided a boost for its economy. India wants to maintain its good relations with Russia — despite the Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (DW 07/08/2024)
SO WHAT?
Will Ukraine adjust its targets for attack or come up a new strategy?
China claims Taiwan as its territory although the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government has never ruled there. (NBC News, 04/07/2023)
On September 03, 2024, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te stated that if China's claims to Taiwan are based on territorial integrity, the People’s Republic of China should also take back regions ceded to Russia in the nineteenth century, under the 1858 Treaty of Aigun. The Treaty of Aigun is considered one of the so-called unequal treaties, where the then-greatest powers used military force to dictate terms to less powerful countries. Under the Treaty of Aigun, China ceded a huge swathe of land to the Russian Empire in what is now the Far East of Russia. Two years later, under the 1860 Beijing Treaty, China again ceded the region of what is now the Primorsky Krai to Russia.
Further, the city, Vladivostok (Haishenwei, 海參崴) means "ruler of the East" or "conquer the East", also translated as "The Office Managing East" or "Queen of the East". On July 2 of 2020, the Russian city of Vladivostok was celebrating 160th anniversary of its founding day.
Moscow, Beijing Respond to The Call
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova on September 03, 2024, pointed out that China and Russia had settled the border in a 2004 agreement and stressed that Moscow backs Beijing's claim over Taiwan. Though China did not respond to Lai's Russia remark directly, it put out a statement on September 03, 2024, blasting Lai, whom it views as a separatist. The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), a Chinese department responsible for cross-strait relations with Taiwan and promoting Beijing's unification agenda, said Lai was "making cross-strait relations increasingly complex and dangerous." (Newsweek, 09/05/2024)
Effective Period for Agreement
On 19 December 1984, in the Great Hall of the People, Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, on behalf of their respective governments, signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration which reflected the basic principles and policies of “One Country, Two Systems”. In this declaration, the communist government obtained the sovereignty over Hong Kong with effect from July 1, 1997. (The Sino-British Joint Declaration) This document states that Hong Kong's previous capitalist system and lifestyle shall remain unchanged for50 years. (Joint Declaration)
However, 20 years later, on June 30, 2017, China said the joint declaration with Britain over Hong Kong, which laid the blueprint over how the city would be ruled after its return to China in 1997, was a historical document that no longer had any practical significance. (Reuters, 06/30/2017)
The border agreement claimed by Maria Zakharova was signed in 2004, it has been 20 years already!
India built a secret trade channel with Russia for Russia to covertly purchase critical goods from India. Under its scheme, rupees would be spent to secure dual-use components through a "closed payment system" between firms of these two countries. According to the news report, this would provide a steady inflow of electronic equipment originally bought in Western markets. Further, Moscow also considered investing in Indian factories to support critical production. (Business Insider, 09/04/2024)
According to a news report, Russia will provide four warships equipped with supersonic missiles to India. The future warships of India are Project 11356 frigates, designed by Russia for the Indian Navy. Two vessels are made in Russia, while the rest will be built in India, according to signed contracts between these two countries in 2018. (Newsweek, 09/04/2024)
On July 09, 2024, The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi traveled to Moscow to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin. That trip coincided with a NATO leaders gathering in Washington and Russian missile strikes on a hospital in Ukraine that killed scores of people, drawing strong criticism from Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian leader called Modi’s meeting “a huge disappointment” and “a devastating blow to peace efforts” after the Indian leader was seen hugging Putin. (AP, 08/21/2024)
During the first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2024, India's import of Russia oil rose by an annual 1.2%. Russia exported more crude oil because of outages at its refineries from Ukrainian drone attacks. Thus, Indian refiners have been gorging on Russian oil, which emerged as an additional outlet after being sold at a discount. (Reuters, 07/24/2024) Indian refiners likely saved at least $10.5 billion by buying discounted Russian oil. (Indian Express, 07/11/2024)
India is the largest buyer of Russian oil which has provided a boost for its economy. India wants to maintain its good relations with Russia — despite the Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. (DW 07/08/2024)
There is a report that India has once again abstained from voting in a UN General Assembly resolution that condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which started in 2022. India has abstained from similar resolutions both at the UNGA and at the UNSC in the past. Russia is also India's largest arms supplier. Besides India, China, Iran and South Africa were among the 32 countries to abstain in the vote. The seven countries who voted against it were Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua and Syria. (BBC, 02/23/2023)
